So lots of people are interested in the probability of nuclear war right now. I have studied the probability of nuclear war about as much as anyone (e.g., lead author on the model in the graphic shown below). Here are my thoughts. pic.twitter.com/WwaJC85LfZ

Here's why I think there's now a one-in-six chance of an imminent global #NuclearWar, and why I appreciate @elonmusk and others urging de-escalation, which is IMHO in the national security interest of all nations: lesswrong.com/posts/Dod9AWz8… pic.twitter.com/kZtTCVhzZu

Has anyone considered whether the rush by US/NATO to deploy huge new batches of additional weaponry will be viewed by Putin as an attempt to “hinder” or “intervene in” the Russian military operation, which Putin threatened would prompt a nuclear strike pic.twitter.com/40Cdyxxnn4

A few thoughts on Ukraine and nuclear risk. The fact NATO is arming Ukraine to kill Russians does not in and of itself make me overly worried about nuclear use. Cold War showed even intense proxy wars can avoid escalating to direct conflict (Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan).